According to the experts the bubble is popping, or the bubble popped, or there is no bubble, or the bubble is going to pop next week. My head is spinning and about to pop. So much speculation, so little hard facts.
I did some digging. I wanted actual facts and statistics. Days on market, houses sold, price. Just some basics so I could get a better idea of what is really going on.
First let's look at the past 3 years;
January 2004 - 5103 homes sold - $253,139 average list price
January 2005 - 6584 homes sold - $307,705 average list price
January 2006 - 5245 homes sold - $409, 109 average list price
February 2004 - 6099 homes sold - $244,717 average list price
February 2005 - 7720 homes sold - $321,777 average list price
February 2006 - 5883 homes sold - Not yet available
These figures are for the Phoenix Metro Area. I have a full analysis of the Arizona Regional Multiple Listing Service (ARMLS) figures for the Glendale/West Maricopa Board of REALTORS available on my web site.
The Phoenix Housing Market Letter Publisher RL Brown, released February's issue stating "Resale "freefall" may be imminent for owners who wait too long to sell", "Over-expectations by sellers are contributing to the booming rehab market," and, "Market times will continue to move up until sellers reposition their pricing to market."
I don't think there can be too much emphasis on "Over-expectations by sellers". Last summer was the exception, not the norm. In many ways, this year is looking like 2003, a normal, stable real estate market. Almost every seller I encounter is struggling with selling because they might lose on another $100,000 in equity if they hang on another few months.
Crystal Balls have not been found to be spot on in their ability to analyze the real estate market. Even if I had one, it would not do me much good. All I can do is take the information I gather and use it the best way possible.
I have not had the time to pull all the figures but I have to assume there is a direct relation between the increase in homes for sale with the population and an increase in home being built. I'm looking forward to analyzing the percentages to get a better picture of what this really means.
If you are planning to sell, I do believe sooner is better then later. For buyers, prices will continue to rise though not at the rate we saw in 2005. That being said, sooner is better then later for you too.
To receive all the market report data or to sign up for the West Valley Real Estate Digest, visit my websites www.AZHomeBuyerHelp.com and www.TalkToTracyHomes.com
